IRAQ WATER TREATMMENT VULNERABILITIES (U)

File: 950901_511rept_91.txt
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Filename:511rept.91

DTG: 221900Z JAN 91

FM: DIA WASHINGTON DC
VIA: NMIST NET
TO: CENTCOM
INFO: CENTAF
UK STRIKE COMMAND
MARCENT
18 ABC
NAVCENT
SOCCENT
7TH CORPS
ANKARA

SUBJECT: IRAQ WATER TREATMMENT VULNERABILITIES (U)
AS OF 18 JAN 91 KEY JUDGMENTS.

1. IRAO DEPENDS ON IMPORTING-SPECIALIZED EQUIPMENT-AND
SOME CHEMICALS TO PURIFY ITS WATER SUPPLY, MOST OF WHICH IS
HEAVILY MINERALIZED AND FREQUENTLY BRACKISH TO SALINE.
2. WITH NO DOMESTIC SOURCES OF BOTH WATER TREATMENT REPLACEMENT PARTS AND SOME ESSENTIAL CHEMICALS, IRAO WILL
CONTINUE ATTEMPTS TO CIRCUMVENT UNITED NATIONS SANCTIONS TO
IMPORT THESE VITAL COMMODITIES.
3. FAILING TO SECURE SUPPLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHORTAGE OF
PURE DRINKING WATER FOR MUCH OF THE POPULATION. THIS COULD LEAD
TO INCREASED INCIDENCES, IF NOT EPIDEMICS, OF DISEASE AND TO
CERTAIN PURE-WATER-DEPENDENT INDUSTRIES BECOMING INCAPACITATED,
INCLUDING PETRO CHEMICALS, FERTILIZERS, PETROLEUM REFINING,
ELECTRONICS,PHARMACEUTICALS, FOOD PROCESSING, TEXTILES, CONCRETE
CONSTRUCTION,AND THERMAL POWERPLANTS.
4. IRAQ'S OVERALL WATER TREATMENT CAPABILITY WILL SUFFER A
SLOW DECLINE, RATHER THAN A PRECIPITOUS HALT, AS DWINDLING
SUPPLIES AND CANNIBALIZED PARTS ARE CONCENTRATED AT HIGHER
PRIORITY LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH IRAQ IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING A LOSS
OF WATERTREATMENT CAPABILITY, IT PROBABLY WILL TAKE AT LEAST SIX
MONTHS (TO JUNE 1991) BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS FULLY DEGRADED.
5. UNLESS WATER TREATMENT SUPPLIES ARE EXEMPTED FROM THE
UNSANCTIONS FOR HUMANITARIAN REASONS, NO ADEQUATE SOLUTION
EXISTS FOR IRAQ'S WATER PURIFICATION DILEMMA, SINCE NO SUITABLE
ALTERNATIVES,INCLUDING LOOTING SUPPLIES FROM KUWAIT,
SUFFICIENTLY MEET IRAQI NEEDS.)
6. IRAQI WATER QUALITY. SURFACE WATER FROM THE TIGRIS AND
EUPHRATES RIVER SYSTEM SUPPLIES ABOUT HALF OF IRAQ'S LAND
AREA,INCLUDING URBAN AREAS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED INDUSTRIES.
IRAQ'S REMAINING AREA, PRIMARILY RURAL, RELIES ON GROUND WATER
FROM WELLS.THE QUALITY OF UNTREATED WATER THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY
VARIES WIDELY BUT GENERALLY IS POOR. HEAVY MINERALIZATION,
SUSPENDED SOLIDS AND,FREQUENTLY, HIGH SALINITY CHARACTERIZE
IRAQ'S WATER SUPPLY.ALTHoUGH IRAQ HAS MADE A CONSIDERABLE EFFORT
TO SUPPLY PURE WATER TO ITS POPULATION, THE WATER TREATMENT
SYSTEM WAS UNRELIABLE EVEN BEFORE THE UNITED NATIONS SANCTIONS
SALINITY CHARACTERIZE IRAO'S WATER SUPPLY.ALTHOUGH IRAQ HAS
MADE A CONSIDERABLE EFFORT TO SUPPLY PURE WATER TO ITS
POPULATION, THE WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM WAS UNRELIABLE EVEN
BEFORE THE UNITED NATIONS SANCTIONS WERE IMPOSED. MOST IRAOIS
PREFER TO DRINK IMPORTED BOTTLED WATER.
7. THE MINERALS IN THE WATER INCLUDE CONCENTRATIONS OF
CARBONATES, SULPHATES, CHLORIDES, AND, IN SOME LOCATIONS,
NITRATES.DRINKING HEAVILY MINERALIZED WATER COULD RESULT IN
DIARRHEA AND,OVER THE LONG TERM, STONES FORMING WITHIN THE
BODY. FOR INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS, PIPES AND OTHER EOUIPMENT
WOULD SCALE (BECOME ENCRUSTED), EVENTUALLY CAUSING PLANTS TO
SHUT DOWN. SCALING IN BOILERS WOULD CAUSE EXPLOSIONS IF NOT
PREVENTED OR REMOVED.
8. MUCH OF IRAO'S GROUND WATER SUPPLIES ARE BRACKISH TO
SALINE. THE,LARGE RESERVOIRS NEAR BAGHDAD--THE THARTHAR, - .
HABBANIYAH, AND AL MILH LAKES--ARE SALINE. SINCE THESE LAKES
SERVE AS CATCH BASINS FOR FLOODS ON THE TIGRIS AND EUPHRATES
RIVERS, THE IRAOIS MUST REDUCE THE WATER VOLUME IN-THE LAKES
DURING THE LOW-WATER SEASON. EVAPARATlON DURING THE SUMMER -
ACCOMPLISHES THIS IMPART. SINCE REDUCING THE WATER VOLUME IN
THE LAKES ONLY INCREASES SALINITY, THE IRAQIS FLUSH THE LAKES
BY DIVERTING FRESH WATER FROM UP STREAM ON THE TIGRIS AND
EUPHRATES. THE FLOW IS DISCHARGED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TO AVOID
FILLING THE BASINS. SINCE THE DISCHARGE OCCURS WHERE THE
RIVERS ENTER THE MESOPOTAMIAN PLAIN, THE DISCHARGE INCREASES
THE NATURAL SALINITY OF THE WATERS DOWNSTREAM, AFFECTING
IRRIGATED AGRICULTURAL LANDS IRAQ SPECIALIZES IN -
SALINE-RESISTANT CROPS SUCH AS BARLEr AND DATES) AND URBAN
AREAS, INCLUDING BAGHDAD.THE KARKH WATER TREATMENT PROJECT FOR
WESTERN BAGHDAD HAS AN IN TAKE POINT ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS NORTH
OF BAGHDAD, UPSTREAM FROM WHERE LAKE THARTHAR DISCHARGES INTO
THE TIGRIS. WATER BELOW THE DISCHARGE POINT REQUIRES
DESALINIZATION.
9. AT BASRAH, THE SHATT AL ARAB TENDS TO BE SALINE UNDER
CONDITIONS OF LOW-RIVER WATER VOLUMES AND DEPENDING ON TIDE
AND WIND DIRECTIONS. NORMALLY, THE SHATT AL ARAB AT BASRAH HAS
A SALINITY OF 1,500 TO 2,000 PARTS PER MILLION (PPM). SALINITY
HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS, AND IN THE FALL
1989, THE SALINITY HAD REACHED 6,000 TO 7,000 PPM, HIGHER THAN
EXISTING DESALINIZATION SYSTEMS COULD HANDLE. (OCEAN SEAWATER
IS ABOUT 36,000 PPM OF DISSOLVED SALTS; THE PERSIAN GULF IS
APPROXIMATELY 42,000 PPM.BRACKISH WATER IS A MINIMUM OF 1,000
PPM. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION STANDARD FOR HUMAN
CONSUMPTION IS 500 PPM OR LESS.GROUND WATER IN IRAO'S LOWER
MESOPOTAMIAN BASIN RANGES FROM 5,000 TO 60,000 PPM, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 80,000). SALINE WATER IS UNFIT FOR DRINKING
AND CORRODES INDUSTRIAL PIPES OR OTHER EXPOSED EQUIPMENT.
10. (U) SUSPENDED SOLIDS, PRIMARILY SILT, IN THE TIGRIS AND
EUPHRATES RIVER SYSTEM INCREASE WITH WATER VOLUME. UNLESS
REMOVED FROM THE WATER, THESE PARTICLES WOULD CLOG PIPES AND
FILTERS AND WOULD REQUIRE STRAINING BEFORE CONSUMPTION BY END
USERS.
11. IRAQ'S RIVERS ALSO CONTAIN BIOLOGICAL
MATERIALS,POLLUTANTS, AND ARE LADEN WITH BACTERIA. UNLESS THE

WATER IS PURIFIED WITH CHLORINE EPIDEMICS OF SUCH DISEASES AS
CHOLERA,HEPATITIS, AND TYPHOID COULD OCCUR.)
12. WATER TREATMENT REGIMES. WATER TREATMENT IS SPECIFIC
TO THE IMPURITIES OF THE WATER TREATED AND TO THE APPLICATION
FOR WHICH THE WATER WILL BE USED. THE BASIC PROCESS REQUIRES
CLARIFICATION (REMOVING SUSPENDED SOLIDS), FILTRATION, AND,
FOR
DRINKING AND SOME INDUSTRIAL USES, PURIFICATION. IN IRAQ, THE
PROCESS ALSO INCLUDES DESALINATING AND WATER SOFTENING.
13. CLARIFICATION REQUIRES ADDING FLOCCULANTS AND
COAGULANTS TO THE WATER. THE IRAOIS USE ALUMINUM SULPHATE
ALTHOUGH IRON SULPHATES ARE ACCEPTABLE TO BIND THE SUSPENDED
SOLIDS INTO CLUMPS FOR SETTLING. IF NOT REMOVED, THE
SEDIMENTS, OR SLUDGE, WOULD CLOG THE FILTRATION SYSTEM
(PROBABLY SAND) AND SHUT DOWN THE WATER PURIFICATION PLANT
UNTIL THE CLOGS WERE REMOVED. ALUMINUM SULPHATE SUPPLY LEVELS
ARE KNOWN TO BE CRITICALLY LOW, SINCE IRAQ TRIED AND FAILED TO
OBTAIN PRECURSOR CHEMICALS FROM JORDAN FOR ITS MANUFACTURE.
14. CHLORINATION NORMALY IS ACCOMPLISHED DURING SEVERAL
STAGES OF PURIFICATION, INCLUDING THE INITAL TREATMENT STAGE
TO PREVENT THE EQUIPMENT FROM LIMING AND TO KILL PATHOGENS
JUST PRIOR TO STORING THE FULLY TREATED WATER. THE CHLORINE
USED IN MOST PLANTS IS EITHER SODIUM HYPOCHLORITE, A LIOUID,
OR CALCIUM HYPOCHLORITE, A POWDER. IF THEY ARE EQUIPPED WITH
INJECTORS, LOW-CAPACITY PLANTS CAN USE CHLORINE GAS DIRECTLY.
IRAO'S PLANT IN FALLUJA AND THE PC-I PETROCHEMICAL PLANT AT
BASRAH PRODUCE SODIUM HYPOCHLORITE AND, AS A BY-PRODUCT,
CAUSTIC SODA, WHICH IS USED TO ADJUST THE PH OF WATER
SUPPLIES. NORMALLY, BOTH LOCATIONS PRODUCE RELATIVELY SMALL
QUANTITIES OF CHLORINE FOR INDUSTRIAL AND SOME MUNICIPAL USE;
CHLORINE FOR MUNICIPAL SUPPLIES ALSO IS IMPORTED.RECENT
REPORTS INDICATE THE CHLORINE SUPPLY IS CRITICALLY LOW. ITS
IMPORTATION HAS BEEN EMBARGOED, AND BOTH MAIN PRODUCTION
PLANTS EITHER HAD BEEN SHUT DOWN FOR A TIME OR HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING MINIMAL OUTPUTS BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF IMPORTED
CHEMICALS AND THE INABILITY TO REPLACE PARTS. PREVIOUSLY WHEN
SUPPLIES WERE LOW, THE IRAQI SHAVE STOPPED CHLORINATING THE
DRINKING WATER, BUT ONLY FOR SHORT PERIODS. TO RETARD ALGAE
GROWTH, WHICH COULD CLOG PIPES, COPPER SULPHATE NORMALLY IS
ADDED TO THE WATER. BUT THIS PRACTICE HAS NOT BEEN VERIFIED IN
IRAO, AND SUPPLIES OF COPPER SULPHATE ARE UNKNOWN.SULFURIC
ACID TYPICALLY IS ADDED AS WELL, BUT IRAQ PROBABLY CAN PRODUCE
SUFFICIENT SUPPLIES.
15. IRAQ APPARENTLY USES LIME, AT LEAST AT THE NEW KARKH
TREATMENT PLANT, TO SOFTEN WATER. THE LIME PRECIPITATES
COLLOIDAL CARBONATE IMPURITIES FROM THE WATER. SODA ASH AND
ZEOLITES ALSO NORMALLY ARE USED TO REMOVE NONCARBONATE MINERAL
IMPURITIES, BUT THEIR USE IN IRAO HAS NOT BEEN DETERMINED.
LOCAL COMPANIES SELL BOTTLED SOFT WATER IN IRAO, SUGGESTING
THAT MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEMS DO NOT NORMALLY SOFTEN WATER.
IRAQ SHOULD HAVE NO SHORTAGES OF LIME. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
SOFTENING CHEMICALS REPORTEDLY HAS INCAPACITATED THE BOTTLED
SOFT-WATER INDUSTRY.
16. BETWEEN 1982 AND 1990, SOME IRAOI INDUSTRIES INSTALLED
REVERSIBLE ION EXCHANGE ELECTRODIALYSIS MEMBRANE SYSTEMS,

OBTAINED FROM AN AMERICAN SOURCE, TO SOFTEN AND DESALINATE
WATER. THE MEMBRANES LAST 5 TO 7 YEARS AND DO NOT REQUIRE
CHEMICAL PRETREATMENT OF THE WATER. THEY NORMALLY SERVE
SMALLER VOLUME REQUIREMENTS.HOWEVER, A MAJOR OIL REFINERY, AL
DAURA IN BAGHDAD, INSTALLED THIS SYSTEM IN 1985, AND IT
PRODUCES 24,000 CUBIC METERS OF PURIFIED WATER PER DAY.
17. ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF ALL IRAOI WATER SUPPLIED FOR
INDUSTRIAL AND HUMAN CONSUMPTION REQUIRES DESALINIZATION. IRAO
RELIES ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON ION EXCHANGE OR REVERSE OSMOSIS
SYSTEMS RATHER THAN MULTISTAGE FLASH UNITS. ION EXCHANGE AND
REVERSE OSMOSIS MEMBRANES ARE SPECIFIC TO THE TYPE OF
EQUIPMENT OF WHICH THEY ARE A COMPONENT, AS ARE THE CHEMICALS
REOUIRED. PREVIOUS IRAQI USE OF SUBSTITUTES HAS NOT BEEN
SATISFACTORY. IRAO REPORTEDLY DEPENDS ON IMPORTED MEMBRANES
AND IMPORTS CHEMICALS FROM SEVERAL SOURCES. IRAQ HAD NOT
COMPLETED THE MAJOR PURCHASE AND DELIVERY OF SPARE MEMBRANES
BEFORE INVADING KUWAIT. ATTEMPTS TO PROCURE MEMBRANES SINCE
THE UN SANCTIONS WERE IMPOSED HAVE FAILED. SINCE THE ATTEMPT
TO IMPORT MEMBRANES CORRESPONED TO THEIR NORMAL REPLACEMENT PERIOD, IRAQ
APPARENTLY DID NOT STOCKPILE ABUNDANT SPACE MEMBRANES OR CHEMICALS AND
PROBABLY HAD NO MORE THAN A 2-MONTH SUPPLY PRIOR TO THE INVASION.
18. POLYAMIDE MEMBRANES WHICH IRAO USES IN SOME
DESALINIZATION EOUIPMENT, DETERIORATE WHEN EXPOSED TO CHLORINE
IONS.PRIOR TO PASSING THROUGH THE MEMBRANE, WAT-ER IS TREATED
WITH SODIUM METABISULPHITE TO REMOVE THE CHLORINE USED IN
PRETREATMENT. THE CHLORINE THEN IS RE-STORED FOR LATER
PURIFICATION. THE STATUS OF SODIUM METABISULPHITE SUPPLIES IS
NOT KNOWN, BUT SUPPLIES PROBABLY ARE DWINDLING, WHICH WILL
ESCALATE FAILURES OF THIS MEMBRANE TYPE.IRAO ALSO USES
CELLULOSE ACETATE MEMBRANES (AN OLD TECHNOLOGY),WHICH HAVE AN
EXCEPTIONALLY SHORT LIFE AND ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BIOLOGICAL
CONTAMINATION. IRAO REPORTEDLY CAN MANUFACTURE CELLULOSE
MEMBRANES, BUT THE AVAILABILITY OF PRECURSOR STOCKS IS
PROBABLY LOW.IRAQ HAD BEEN ACOUIRING REVERSE ELECTRODIALYSIS
ION EXCHANGE MEMBRANES PRIOR TO THE UN SANCTIONS. HOWEVER,
MOST SYSTEMS USE REVERSE OSMOSIS OR UNIDIRECTIONAL
ELECTRODIALYSIS, WHICH, UNLIKE REVERSE ELECTRODIALYSIS
MEMBRANES, REOUIRE CHEMICALS TO MAKE THEM WORK.)
19. INDUSTRIAL WATER TREATMENT. INDUSTRIES REQUIRE TREATED
WATER, AND THE TYPE OF TREATMENT DEPENDS ON THE
APPLICATION. NORMALLY, SOFTENING AND DESALINIZATION ARE
REOUIRED TO PREVENT PIPE SAND EOUIPMENT FROM CORRODING OR
SCALING. IN THE PETRO CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, WATER USED FOR
COOLING IS PARTIALLY TREATED TO PREVENT SCALING. WATER USED IN
THERMAL POWERPLANTS OR REFINERIES TO PRODUCE STEAM MUST BE
PURE TO PREVENT BOTH CORROSION AND SCALING.OTHERWISE, LOSS OF
CAPABILITY COULD OCCUR WITHIN 2 MONTHS. IN ADDITION, FOOD
PROCESSING, ELECTRONIC, AND, PARTICULARLY,PHARMACEUTICAL
PLANTS REOUIRE EXTREMELY PURE WATER THAT IS FREE FROM
BIOLOGICAL CONTAMINANTS. LARGE INDUSTRIAL PLANTS, INCLUDING
PETROCHEMICAL, REFINING, AND FERTILIZER PLANTS, COLLOCATE
THEIR WATER TREATMENT FACILITIES. TURNKEY CONTRACTORS BUILT
THESE FACILITIES, AND THE PARTS ARE SPECIFIC TO EACH SYSTEM,
WHICH COMPLICATES THEIR REPLACEMENT. THE IRAOIS COULD NOT
MANUFACTURE DUPLICATES AND THEIR IMPORTATION IS EMBARGOED.)
20. IRAQI ALTERNATIVES. IRAQ COULD TRY CONVINCING THE
UNITED NATIONS OR INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES TO EXEMPT WATER
TREATMENT SUPPLIES FROM SANCTIONS FOR HUMANITARIAN REASONS. IT
PROBABLY ALSO IS ATTEMPTING TO PURCHASE SUPPLIES BY USING SOME
SYMPATHETIC COUNTRIES AS FRONTS. IF SUCH ATTEMPTS FAIL, IRAQI
ALTERNATIVES ARE NOT ADEOUATE FOR THEIR NATIONAL REOUIREMENTS.
21. VARIOUS IRAOI INDUSTRIES HAVE WATER TREATMENT CHEMICAL
SAND EQUIPMENT ON HAND, IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY BEEN CONSUMED
OR BROKEN. IRAO POSSIBLY COULD CANNIBALIZE PARTS OR ENTIRE
SYSTEMS FROM LOWER TO HIGHER PRIORITY PLANTS, AS WELL AS
DIVERT CHEMICALS,SUCH AS CHLORINE. HOWEVER, THIS CAPABILITY
WOULD BE LIMITED AND TEMPORARY. IRAQ PREVIOUSLY HAD ACQUIRED
SEVERAL HUNDRED CONTAINERIZED REVERSE OSMOSIS MODULES FOR '
LOCALIZED USE THAT COULD BE RELOCATED. WITHOUT CHEMICALS AND
REPLACEMENT MEMBRANES, THESE UNITS WHERE EVENTUALLY WOULD BECOME
USELESS. HOWEVER, CONSOLIDATING CHEMICALS OR CANNIBALIZING
PARTS AND MOVING UNITS WHERE NECESSARY COULD SUSTAIN SOME
PURIFICATION OPERATIONS INDUSTRIAL PLANTS THAT ARE INOPERABLE
FOR REASONS-OTHER THAN THE LACK OF WATER TREATMENT SUPPLIES
COULD PROCESS WATER FOR MUNICIPAL NEEDS OR POSSIBLY RELOCATE
THEIR PURIFICATION EOUIPMENT.
22. THE DIFFERENCE IN WATER TREATMENT SYSTEMS LIMITS THE
BENEFITS TO IRAQ OF PLUNDERING KUWAIT'S WATER TREATMENT
CHEMICALS. THE KUWAITIS RELY PRIMARILY ON DESALINATING
SEAWATER, AND THEIR WATER NEEDS ARE CONSIDERABLY SMALLER THAN
IRAQ'S. IRAQ COULD NOT USE CHEMICALS INTENDED FOR KUWAITI
WATER TREATMENT SYSTEMS, EXCEPT FOR LIMITED QUANTITIES OF
CHLORINE. ATTEMPTS TO CIRCUMVENT THE SANCTIONS TO OBTAIN WATER
TREATMENT CHEMICALS SUGGEST THAT ANY USEFUL SUPPLIES FROM
KUWAIT ALREADY HAVE BEEN LOOTED AND USED.
23. IRAO HAS INSTALLED A PIPELINE FROM THE DOHA
DESALINIZATION PLANT IN KUWAIT THAT CONNECTS WITH DISTRIBUTION
PIPES AT A WATERTREATMENT PLANT NEAR BASRAH. THIS SOURCE OF
PURE WATER APPARENTLY HAS ENABLED THE PC-I PETROCHEMICAL PLANT
TO OPERATE AND TO PRODUCE CHLORINE BY ELECTROLYSIS OF KUWAITI
WATER MIXED WITH PURE SODIUM CHLORIDE. AT LEAST SOME OF THIS
CHLORINE PROBABLY IS USED FOR MUNICIPAL WATER PURIFICATION,
BUT THE OUANTITY PRODUCED WOULD BE INADEOUATE FOR NATIONAL
REOUIREMENTS. MOREOVER, SOME OF THE CHLORINE PROBABLY IS USED
AT THE PC-I PLANT TO MAKE POLYVINYL CHLORIDES TO CREATE THE
PLASTIC SHEETS USED IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. THE USE OF
KUWAITI WATER PROBABLY WILL NOT LAST LONG SINCE THE DOHA PLANT
USES THE MULTISTAGE FLASH DESALINIZATION PROCESS, WHICH
REOUIRES ACID DOSING OR THE ADDITION OF POLYMERS TO PREVENT
SCALING OF THE HEAT EXCHANGES. THE UN SANCTIONS MAY PREVENT
RESUPPLY OF THESE CHEMICALS. INTENSIVE MAINTENANCE ALSO IS
REOUIRED TO KEEP THE UNITS OPERATING, AND THAT PROBABLY WOULD
REOUIRE THE SERVICES OF TRAINED KUWAITI EMPLOYEES SINCE IRAQ
HAS LITTLE EXPERIENCE WITH MULTISTAGE FLASH UNITS.
24. IRAQ'S BEST SOURCES OF QUALITY WATER ARE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WHERE MINERALIZATION AND
SALINITY ARE WITHIN ACCEPTABLE LIMITS. FOR THE SHORT TERM,

IRAO CONCEIVABLY COULD TRUCK WATER FROM THE MOUNTAIN
RESERVOIRS TO URBAN AREAS. BUT THE CAPABILITY TO GAIN
SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. THE AMOUNT OF PIPE
ON HAND AND THE LACK OF PUMPING STATIONS WOULD LIMIT LAYING
PIPELINES TO THESE RESERVOIRS. MOREOVER, WITHOUT CHLORINE
PURIFICATION, THE WATER STILL WOULD CONTAIN BIOLOGICAL
POLLUTANTS. SOME AFFLUENT IRAQIS COULD OBTAIN THEIR OWN
MINIMALLY ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF GOOD OUALITY WATER FROM NORTHERN
IRAOI SOURCES.IF BOILED, THE WATER COULD BE SAFELY CONSUMED.
POORER IRAQIS AND INDUSTRIES REQUIRING LARGE OUANTITIES OF PURE
WATER WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MEET THEIR NEEDS.
25. PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN IRAQ DURING THE WINTER AND
SPRING,BUT IT FALLS PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SPORADIC RAINS,SOMETIMES HEAVY , FALL OVER THE LOWER PLAINS.
BUT IRAQ COULD NOT RELY ON RAIN TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE PURE
WATER.
26. THE SALINE OR ALKALINE CONTENT-OF GROUND WATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS WOULD CONSTRAIN DRILLING WELLS IN THE MESOPOTAMIAN
PLAIN TO OBTAIN PURER WATER MOREOVER, MUCH OF THE POPULATION
USES SEPTIC TANKS, AND THE UNDERLYING GEOLOGY AND TOPOGRAPHY
WOULD CONTAMINATE WELLS IN MANY LOCATIONS.))OUTLOOK)
27. IRAQ WILL SUFFER INCREASING SHORTAGES OF PURIFIED
WATER BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF REOUIRED CHEMICALS AND
DESALINIZATION MEMBRANES. INCIDENCES OF DISEASE, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE EPIDEMICS,WILL BECOME PROBABLE UNLESS THE POPULATION
WERE CAREFUL TO BOIL WATER BEFORE CONSUMPTION, PARTICULARLY
SINCE THE SEWAGE TREATMENT SYSTEM, NEVER A HIGH PRIORITY, WILL
SUFFER THE SAME LOSS OF CAPABILITY WITH THE LACK OF CHLORINE.
LOCALLY PRODUCED FOOD AND MEDICINE COULD BE CONTAMINATED. LACK
OF COAGULATION CHEMICALS WILL CAUSE PERIODIC SHUTDOWNS OF
TREATMENT PLANTS FOR UNCLOGGING AND CLEANING FILTERS, CAUSING
INTERRUPTIONS OF WATER SUPPLIES. AS DESALINIZATION EQUIPMENT
BECOMES INOPERABLE, SALINE WATER SOURCES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNUSABLE. TEMPORARY OR PERMANENT SHUT DOWNS OF
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS THAT RELY ON TREATED WATER WILL
MULTIPLY.CANNIBALIZING LOWER PRIORITY OPERATIONS WILL
ACCELERATE THE TREND.
28. THE ENTIRE IRAOI WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM WILL NOT
COLLAPSE PRECIPITOUSLY, BUT ITS CAPABILITIES WILL DECLINE
STEADILY AS DWINDLING SUPPLIES INCREASINGLY ARE DIVERTED TO
HIGHER PRIORITY SITES WITH COMPATIBLE EQUIPMENT. KARKH, IRAO'S
LARGEST WATERTREATMENT PLANT (AND ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST),
WAS DESIGNED TO STORE 30 DAYS OF SUPPLIES ON SITE. THE
QUANTITY OF SUPPLIES, IF ANY, NORMALLY STOCKPILED IN
CENTRALIZED WAREHOUSES BEFORE SHIPMENT TO TREATMENT PLANTS IS
UNKNOWN, BUT A 6 MONTH TO I YEAR SUPPLY OF CHEMICALS IS THE
NORMAL INDUSTRIAL PRACTICE. HOWEVER, CURRENT IRAQI EFFORTS TO
OBTAIN CHEMICALS AND MEMBRANES AND THE INSTALLATION OF A
PIPELINE TO OBTAIN PURE KUWAITI WATER SUGGEST THAT THERE WAS
NOT ADEOUATE STOCKPILING PRIOR TO THE INVASION OF KUWAIT. SOME
CHEMICALS ARE DEPLETED OR ARE NEARING DEPLETION, AND OLDER
MEMBRANES ARE NOT BEING REPLACED ON SCHEDULE. CONSEOUENTLY,
IRAQ PROBABLY IS USING UNTREATED OR PARTIALLY TREATED WATER IN
SOME LOCATIONS. FULL DEGRADATION OF THE WATER TREATMENT SYSTEM

PROBABLY WILL TAKE AT LEAST ANOTHER 6 MONTHS.

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